Jun 6 2008

The Wheel of Fugly

Posted By melina@tomsonburnham.com | Category: Market Condition Reports | No Comments

I’d like to welcome our sellers to the Wheel of Fugly…where market stats are going to make you cry.
Category is INVENTORY:
Here’s the puzzle: __.__% ____ ________ ____ ___ ____ ____ ___ ____.
Spin the wheel: Oh, you got ugly.
Spin it again: Ugh, ugly again. That’s a bummer.
Well, you’ve got a plethora of ugly do you want to solve the puzzle or spin again?
Solve it: 35.79% more listings on the market now than the same time last year.
Category is NUMBER OF SALES YEAR TO DATE
Here’s the puzzle:____ ____ ____ __ ____
Spin the wheel: Oh, you got more ugly.

Spin it again: Sheesh…more ugly again. What bad luck.

Well, you’ve got a boat load of more ugly do you want to solve the puzzle or spin again?

Solve it: 2484 sales year to date
(This is the fewest number of homes sold since at least 1996. A 34.5% drop since 2007).
Now here’s the final puzzle
Category is PERCENTAGE OF LISTINGS SOLD SO FAR IN 2008

Here’s the puzzle:__% _ ___ __ ___ __ ___ ____ ____

Spin the wheel: Oh, you got more ugly.

Spin it again: Oh no! This time you got fugly. That is some crappy luck you have today.

Well, I know you only have more ugly plus a whole bunch of fugly , but do you want to solve the puzzle or spin again?

Solve it: 32% of listings have sold so far this year.
(This is half as much as in 2006 and a 16% drop from 2007)
Congratulations! You dear seller, have won a 32% chance of selling your property in a market with 35.79% more inventory.
Hmmm…So what did I win???
A ten month supply of Kleenex (current inventory). Don’t worry it’s the kind with the lotion in it.
Read more...
Jun 5 2008

The road to real estate

Posted By melina@tomsonburnham.com | Category: Real Estate Opinions | No Comments

Real estate is easy…just work 20 hours a week and you’ll make millions! Seriously. Just make sure to hit up your mother’s sister’s cousin’s best friends and you have it made. You see those houses on the lake? You can HAVE one of those, just sell real estate. The road to real estate is easy money…

During the real estate boom, everyone’s brother’s uncle’s father got their real estate license. Friends were pitted against each other since EVERYONE knew at least 50 people that were real estate agents. The National Association of Realtors grew at an unprecedented rate as people did real estate “on the side.”

The road to real estate came to a screeching halt. The housing decline has had a huge impact not only on real estate, but on the jobs associated with real estate such as home inspectors, appraisers, mortgage brokers, construction workers, and title company employees. I have gotten numerous emails from contractors entering the pest and dry rot repair business for real estate transactions. With builders laying off subs left and right, there aren’t a lot of places for them to turn. The lost jobs have been substantial.

Sometimes I feel like I’m driving down the street and seeing road kill everywhere. Oh honey look, there’s another carpenter, mortgage broker, escrow officer, brokerage AKA carcass.

Real estate agents aren’t any different.

It’s been no secret that real estate agents are leaving real estate to delve back into the other realm of work. I hadn’t really thought about it too much, but last month, I noticed on our WVMLS statistics that the number of members which was a 2,194 in 2007, had dropped to 2,131 in April. As the new stats came out for May, the number of agents dropped again to 2,117. That’s a 3.5% drop in membership since the start of the year.

7 offices have closed as well.

I would expect this percentage to continue to increase as the year goes on as agents choose not to renew their licenses. With 2484 homes sold to date in the WVMLS area that leaves each agent with 1.2 sales. Now some agents have had more than their allotted 1.2, myself included, which means that there are many agents that have had no income so far this year.

But if we assume that all is equal…

With the average homes price now at $237, 939 and the average commission income at 5.06% (assume a 50/50 split) that means the average agent has earned $7146 so far this year or $1429 per month. That puts the average agent at the whopping salary of $17,148 or $8.57 per hour (40 hour work week, 50 weeks a year).

I haven’t looked lately, but I think the average agent could make more money driving a school bus. I wonder how much a limo drives make…I mean if I’m going to look at road kill all day, at least I can ride in style.

Read more...
Jun 4 2008

I think I’ll wait for the annual half-off sale

Posted By melina@tomsonburnham.com | Category: Real Estate Opinions | 2 Comments

I am a voracious reader and many of my favorite bookstores, offer specials such as buy two, get one free, etc. I’m always there stocking up on books.

When I read Ines’ blog about CB’s 10% for 10 days promotion I was surprised and not surprised. We are in a difficult market, especially in Florida. A promotion like that is fraught with problems for sellers, but Ines talks about it well.

Recently, a blog written for the LA Times was brought to my attention. Apparently a builder in CA was offering a buy one, get one free deal on houses. Buy a 1.6M home and get a $400K one for free. What is so great about this blog is not the blog itself, but some of the comments afterwards. My favorite comment was posted by shockg

Hello Dominoes…I’m calling about your buy 2 medium pizzas with the free 1BR condo on the side.

I was wondering…if I upgrade to 2 large pies can I get a 2BR?

Oh…you still have plenty of those…great. Don’t forget to include the dipping sauce and the granite counters.

Sure…I can be ready to close in 30-45 minutes.

It will be cash.

Thanks. See you soon.

Now, I realize that there are many sellers in dire straights in CA and FL and it is certainly not my intention to mock their pain, but these two promotions are really over the top. With Coldwell Banker’s 10% off for 10 days promotion and this buy one, get one free promotion it’s no wonder than some buyers still don’t want to dive into the home market. While I have to give these agents credit for trying something unique to sell these homes, I almost can hear the buyers saying, “I think I’ll just wait for the annual half-off sale.”

Read more...
Jun 2 2008

The secret not so secret workings of the MLS

Posted By melina@tomsonburnham.com | Category: Real Estate Opinions | No Comments

As many of you may be aware, the DOJ and NAR announced a settlement regarding the NAR’s VOW (Virtual Office Website) rules. As news of this moved throughout the internet, people took sides.

A poster in a forum had written with the settlement that online house shopping would become easier. I replied that house shopping is already easy due to the IDX system which MOST agents use. The VOW affects very few brokerages. In my opinion, it is more of a theoretical victory and not a practical one.

Another poster made a comment

If selling houses is a service business, and not a data business, why isn’t full access given immediately to any person?I’m not getting the glass half full/glass half empty logic.

I responded with

Honestly, if a FSBO wanted to pay the $2,000 joining fee which I pay for my MLS and the $75 a month dues to maintain and access the system, I would be fine with that. I think you will find that most people don’t want to do that.

I remember reading somewhere of one MLS toying with the idea of allowing the public to join and pay the fees. I haven’t heard anything more about it, so I don’t know if it really happened.

I don’t think sellers realize how much it costs to join and participate in the MLS. We as agents can spread that cost over several clients, whereas a seller would have to eat that cost in just one sale of their home.It is much more cost effective for sellers who want to represent themselves just pay a limited representation company and put their information on the MLS.

Also, I don’t know what data you think you want that you don’t have access to. In Oregon sales prices are public records. The information that is private has to do with seller phone numbers, special instructions for showings, sometimes there are lockbox codes on there. Maybe you are okay with putting the lockbox code to your house on a public forum, but as a seller I would not be pleased about that.

What about ALL of that data that we have that no one else does? With the exception of days on the market, information on the MLS is public information. We have tax information, schools, room sizes (blueprints are at the county), and basic amenities (which you can usually discern from the photos). There isn’t any top secret information in the database, it is convenient. Heaven forbid, we agents banded together and made our jobs more efficient and convenient.

Forget what you think you know…the MLS is not some sort of magical database. It COSTS money to run it. Yes, there are people that maintain the servers, input data for some agents, house the office building, etc. There are overhead costs associated with running the MLS. Apparently some people in the public think they should be able to post listings for free.

Honestly, I don’t know people think they are missing. Even if the general public was allowed to post their own listings on the MLS, why would you. It would cost you $2000 +$75 per month. If you want MLS access google “limited representation your town Oregon” and pay the $300 to get on there. Sometimes, I think people get so outraged with a perceived wrong, they don’t really understand that it might not be something they would use.

Read more...
Newer Entries »