Apr 19 2012

I’m calling a three

The first quarter came to an end a couple of weeks ago which means we have a bit more data to work with regarding home sales.  I know some of you are armed with tax return checks and wondering if it might be time to dive into the real estate market.  So here’s my opinion…

See my pretty lines?  The closer they are together the better the market is doing in terms of supply and demand.  We call that number inventory.  If they are closer it means that the volume of houses entering the market is closer to the demand of the market.  As you can see the first quarter of this year was pretty much on par with last year.  This is nice to see as we are seeing a decrease in inventory.   This is important for a healthy, normal market. We aren’t there yet, but at least things are starting to bottom out.

Median home prices in Salem OregonThe reason buyers are coming out, of course, is the ongoing home price declines. We are at the point for many people where buying a home is equivalent to renting a house.  Renting a house for $1,000-$1100 a month?  We can get you a house for that now.  Low interest rates coupled with huge declines in home prices has made this happen.  Buyers are starting to figure this out and are coming out to consider buying.   The rate of home price decline has slowed down, but the decline is still happening.

A buyer prospect recently asked me what I thought of the current market.  I said if 2009 was a 1, because I’m telling you that year stunk in real estate, then we are at a 3.  We are clawing our way out of the hole, but we are still in it.

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Apr 10 2012

The PR disaster

In 2007, NAR came out with the now infamous “It’s a good time to buy” campaign.  As home prices tumbled and the bubble had partially burst, NAR came out with the public confidence building campaign to encourage home ownership. This, of course, backfired with consumers and was distasteful to many agents who were sitting down with sellers struggling with their underwater home loans.   As far as I was concerned, it was a PR disaster.  It was like Philip Morris saying that smoking was good  because it caused “between 943 million and 1.2 billion korunas (about $24 million-to-$30 million) in health-care, pension and public-housing costs due to the early deaths of smokers.”  Read more  See?  Smoking is good because it kills people and it means we don’t have to take care of your sorry behind when you get old.  Um, yeah, okie dokie on that.

 

PR disasters.  From wardrobe malfunctions to trapped passengers on the runway to CEO’s on private jets while asking for bailouts, there have been some mistakes of epic proportions.  You can put NAR’s campaign in that league as far as I’m concerned.  You can’t tell people go out and buy with integrity, as people are losing their homes left and right.  Negative consequences stink.  The consequences to the NAR were minimal because the real consequences were to the membership, the REALTORS®.   There was a poll on a forum recently that simply asked “who is more to blame for the meltdown…REALTORS® or Appraisers.”  No mention of Wall Street and their credit default swaps.  No mention of banks having quotas for loans.  No mention of the Community Reinvestment Act.  No mention of those AAA ratings.

 

REALTORS® have a serious PR problem.   Why bring this up now?  Beside the obvious fact that I like to ask and answer my own questions, the fact is that in many areas it is starting to be a good time to buy, finally. Propaganda is meeting reality, five years later, but nonetheless they are colliding.  All my regular readers know I am a data geek, and I have been running the quarterly numbers for the Salem area which I will post in the next few days.   The problem is that real estate agents can’t say this and be believed.   That campaign that NAR ran in 2007, they should be running it now.  The problem is they spouted off at the mouth early and completely discredited every  real estate agent across the country with one fell swoop.  It’s what everyone wants in their trade organization: to have the rug pulled out from underneath you, right?

 

What triggered this post was a flurry of status updates by real estate agents coming across my Facebook wall for the past month.  I cringed every time an agent wrote “it’s a good time to buy” on their wall, not because it isn’t true, but because it reminds me AND more importantly consumers of that horrendous NAR video that came out.  It reminds them that the trade organization representing the industry wasn’t honest.   I encourage all real estate agents, whether you are a member of NAR or not, to steer clear of that phrase.  Agents need to re-establish trust and credibility with consumers after being lead astray.

 

The fact is that the market is showing indications of stabilization.  So my fellow agents, here is your chance to re-brand.  Use it wisely.

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Apr 1 2012

The Bridge to Salemithia

It has been called the “bridge to nowhere” by local Salem residents, but make no mistake that distinction won’t last much longer.  Local real estate developer, FantaMagic Properties, has purchased the land on Minto Brown Island and plans were recently approved by the city.

“We are really excited to see what happens with the development,” said Mayor Anna Peterson.  ”I’ve always felt that Turner outclassed Salem with Enchanted Forest.  Now, we can really stand out and compete against Turner.  It’s a dream come true.”

Developer FantaMagic is well known for creating unique developments and Salem is truly fortunate that they chose our mid-sized city for their latest project.  Complete with homes on the river, a natural forest, lakes and ponds, this development is sure to be something truly special.

I was invited to tour this new development, Salemithia, and you guessed it…listings are exclusive through Tomson Burnham.  What can I say?  We rock.    I was duly impressed with the unique, twisting design for the bridge and asked about the inspiration for the design.

“Let’s face it. Portland has straight bridges and we don’t want to be like Portland.  They’re weird, “said the developer. “My curly cue design keeps Salemites in an endless adventure as they cross the river.  Plus it gives the trolls more time to grab your leg.  Let’s face it, this gen Y group?  Slackers.  All of ‘em.  So the inspiration?  Just making it easier to feed the trolls.”

After engaging in Dances with Trolls across the bridge, Salem residents are greeted by the sweet warm smell of Dioxins.  ”Nothing screams new development, like a little chemical contamination,” said real estate broker Melina Tomson.  ”This is a one of a kind opportunity for planned community living here in Salem.  We have some incredible options for home plans.  I expect that the Gingerbread plan will be really popular, but we all have the Red Riding Hood, The Repunzel, and the H&G plan.  I expect the H&G will be popular with gourmet cooks. It has a killer oven. ”

The Bridge to Salemithia plans are below.


View April Fools Map in a larger map

 
If you want more information on this new and amazing development, contact Melina Tomson. I’ll even buy you some peanut brittle. ;-D

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