Last one year end market report. Whew…I need a break from data and I’m sure my regular readers are getting tired of data too!’
So let’s talk Stayton real estate.
Stayton has been struggling for a while and that hasn’t changed. The inventory is currently at 36 months, which is high even for our normal slow months. I wish I had better stats to share with you for Stayon, but I don’t. If you want cheery news you’ll have to go to Aumsville.
So Stayton…
The average home priced dropped 11.9% to $192, 156 and the median shifted upwards 2.2% to $189,900. I think the median shifted up as there were some more expensive foreclosures that hit the Stayton market, pulling the median up. I don’t think that the Stayton real estate market is close to recovering or bottom for that matter.
I think it is still in a world of hurt over there.
I think this becomes more apparent when we look at the number of homes listed vs. the number of homes sold. What is supply and demand looking like in Stayton?
Honestly, better, but not good.
The larger the gap between the red and blue lines, the worse the inventory and hence, supply and demand, are.
You can see we have clearly come off the peak, but things aren’t in any great shape. From 2008, the number of homes sold dropped 10.9%. Now that was offset a bit by a drop (28.2%) in the number of homes listed but supply and demand still aren’t working well together in Stayton.
So what does that mean for 2010?
Stayton home prices will have to continue to come down to correct the supply and demand imbalance. Like Silverton, I would not be surprised at all, and in fact would expect to see, home prices drop another 10% in this area. Inventory just isn’t getting eaten up fast enough to keep home prices stabilized. Sorry Stayton home sellers. I wish the trends were looking better for your area.
Aumsville ended the year at an average home price of $206,542 and a median home price of $209,500. That average home price was a 1.5% INCREASE (I’m writing it in all caps, because it is the first time I get to write it) over 2008. The median, however, is down 5.2%. The cause of this is due to the newer JDC subdivision in Aumsville, Highberger Meadows. Several homes sold there, which are generally more expensive than Aumsville homes typically are. The median which is the number where 50% are higher and 50% are lower is a bit more accurate for smaller towns since it swings less due to a high priced home selling.
Monmouth ended the year at an average home price of $180,887 and a median home price of $181,500 Monmouth home prices are about 11% higher than Independence and I think it shows in their year end numbers. Monmouth has an 8.6 month inventory which is higher than Independence.
the number of homes listed going down, it just wasn’t enough.
The average and median home prices in Independence have always been almost exactly the same. Independence ended the year at an average home price of $162, 874 and a median home price of $162, 000. Compare that with some of the other metro towns and you can see that Independence is more affordable than some of the other Salem cities.
Couple the drop in home prices with a 12% decrease in homes listed AND a 16% increase in homes sold over 2008, and what you get is a supply and demand imbalance…corrected. At least for now. Right now, the data is indicating a nice healthy, normal, real estate market. Now remember normal doesn’t mean a sellers market or a buyer’s market. It means “let’s be reasonable” market. Both sides need to put their sharkish “blood in the water” ways aside for a while.
In 2009, the listed vs. sold percentage was 50.8%. This was a nice improvement over 2008’s 37.7% but still off from the early part of the decades 65%. Going in the right direction…yes, but things still have a ways to go. I don’t think this is a surprise to anyone that reads a newspaper or watches the news. Real estate is just going to take a bit to recover, like the economy. It was nice to see fewer listings hitting the market this year than last year in Dallas. While 14% less homes were listed in 2009 over 2008, that number really needs to get down another 15-20% to correct the supply and demand problem. So either home sales need to come up or the number of homes listed has to come down. Personally I don’t see home sales going up a whole lot more next year so the correction will need to come on the supply end. In other words don’t list your house if you don’t have to sell.
Obviously they went down. It will be an earth shattering moment when I get to say that home prices went up. So the average home price dropped 8.7% to $191,874 from 2008, and the median shifted downward 4.1% to $185,000. I have to say I’m surprised that the drop wasn’t greater, but I think there is still a bit of denial on the state of the real estate market in Dallas. Based on the supply and demand problem, large inventory, lending difficulties, and oh yes…our ongoing unemployment rate, I would expect Dallas home prices to correct another 5 maybe 10% over 2010.
The biggest issue with the Silverton market has been the complete disconnect between supply and demand. In the early part of the decade about 65% of homes listed sold. 2008 was a dismal year in Silverton as only 29.7% of homes listed sold. 2009 started the year with insane inventory in Silverton and the fact that inventory is at 13 months right now, is a great step for this small market.
out of whack in this small town, unemployment and foreclosures are rising, lending is getting more difficult, and inventory is just too high. Unfortunately for folks living in Silverton home prices just have to come down more to get in the ballpark for more home buyers. I would really encourage folks living in Silverton to not “try” the real estate market there. If you don’t have to sell and want to wait for “top dollar” this is not the market to do so, unless you have something extra special about your property. Either you are in the market, or not. With the average days on the market jumping 30% from 2008 to 173 days (5.7 months), selling a home in Silverton is starting to become a marathon. You gotta have the stamina to sell it out there.

You would all like to know wouldn’t you? So would I, but alas my dog was acting weird all night and kept me up. In my sleepy stupor, I dropped my crystal ball, watched it roll across the floor and hit the wall, shattering into a bazillion pieces. I was reaching for my coffee and the time so my reaction time was just too slow… As such, all you will get is my best guess with a bunch of qualifiers…
Listed vs. sold homes.
This statistic is really important to some people so I’ll give it to you. The average for Salem Oregon for 2009 was 138. This is an increase from last year by 10.8%. This is not a surprise. Lending has been difficult and with the rule changes closings went from a typical 30 days to sometimes 60 days. Higher end homes are also taking a much longer time to sell which is pulling this number higher as well.
Okay, was my 5-10% price correction prediction correct? The average home price dropped 9.1% and the median home price dropped 9%. It was on the high end of my expectation, but I took lessons from Nostradamus and wrote in an ambiguous way so I can always claim that I was right. That’s what I tell myself anyway…
November traditionally is not a huge month in real estate in our area. Keizer stayed on track and had a very normal November. Sales were pretty much flat and have been for the past four years. While it looks like there is a mild drop, there were 25 sales this year vs. 27 last year. The sample is just too small to really say the minor drop has any significance.
As for home prices with this small sample…Average home price was down just 2.3% year over year. The median saw a greater shift due to the foreclosures and short sales and the lower end of the market. The median home price dropped 10.5% as a result. The good news about the average staying up…it means that a few more expensive homes were able to sell and get cleared off the real estate market shelf. That is good.
Well, sales were up 126% over last November which stunk beyond belief, in technical real estate lingo… it has hard to NOT do better than last year’s November’s numbers. But Nov 08 aside, the sales volume returned to a more normal volume, which is good. It is much more consistent with the early years of the decade so in essence a return to normal. So that part is good.
average home prices continue to stay down which is good in order to maintain affordability in our area. If homes aren’t affordable they won’t sell. That simple. The average home price dropped 13.9% over last years $217,192 to this year’s $186, 920. The median home price dropped 11.2% from last year’s $196,500 to this year’s $174,480. This is good news for the ongoing health of the market.


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