Well like Salem I underestimated the decline a bit.  The median shifted downward by 7.7, so I missed it by 2.7%.    The average home price declined by 9.2% which isn’t surprising as fewer high end homes are selling to keep the average up.  With smaller data figures like this, the median is a better way to look at the data.   So off by a bit, but pretty close.

How did I do on home sales?  Oh…so close.  Check out this lovely graph.  2 more sales in 2011 over 2010.  It doesn’t get much better than that for flat lining.   Keizer home sales have been stalled at these levels for three years, and quite frankly it will probably be like this again in 2012.

So what do all my lovely charts mean to you?  The good news is that banks are still having trouble foreclosing on MERS involved properties so the inventory is at 9.7 months which is decent for these economic times.  This means not great conditions for sellers but better. Multiple offers are happening on occasion, not the norm by any means, but they are happening.  Less competition is good for our regular sellers.

This stagnation for buyers means that sellers are still feeling the pain a bit and many have accepted current market conditions.  Buyers are having better choices in the regular real estate market without having to delve into the distressed property market which means good things for buyer paid closing costs and needed repairs.

So my predictions for next year?.  Honestly, the exact same thing. I think the market will continue to decline another 5% of so and home sales will remain flat lined.  There just aren’t enough buyers that qualify for financing to have any kind of big pop in home buying.

Phew…my ego is still intact.   I know you were all deeply worried about that part.

Data in these charts was crunched from data collected from the WVMLS for single family non-acreage properties.

The average home price in Salem ended at $166,976 and the median was $151, 700.  Compare that with the average and median home prices for say…2004 and you’ll see a suprising similarlity.  $164,199 and $148,400.  Yep.  The bubble never happened.   For those of you that purchase in 03-04 who think you have made a profit?  Probably not.  If you are looking to sell in 2012, you might be told you will break even.
The good news is that with these more affordable homes and incredible interest rates, buyers have been out.  I’d say they have been out en force, but there aren’t enough buyers to call it a mad rush or anything.  Many agents I know had very busy falls, and I’m hearing from my agent friends, which is true for myself also, that January is busier than usual.    In 2011, 57% of sellers were successful in getting their listing sold.  Not great but better than the 40% of last year.  There were home sales for $30,000 in Salem Oregon in 2011.  Mind you, not livable homes at that price, but investors are out in force with trashed out foreclosures getting multiple offers.
I’ve noticed the flippers have started to dip a tiny toe in the water, but most investors are doing buy and hold.  The nice drop in inventory that we see by fewer listings is pretty much caused by the MERS debacle that lenders have created, causing problems with their ability to foreclose on homes here in Oregon.  The foreclosure numbers, which had artifically dropped in Oregon will be picking back up in 2012 as lenders that can actually produce notes go the judicial foreclosure route.  So what does this mean for our 2012 market?
I haven’t had my Wheaties today but I did have green tea and a protein bar for breakfast…that counts, right?  Ithink we will drop maybe another 5%.  We could take another 10% hit if the lenders can get their MERS problem dealt with and dump their inventory on the market. That would really hurt so here’s hoping they don’t do that.  If the lenders continue at their current pace in placing inventory on the market, I would expect home prices to decline another 5% this year.  Unemployment is stagnant but stable at current levels.  Inventory is down to around 10 months in Salem and has been at that level for around 6 months. Interest rates are insanely low and buyers are responding.   These factors will allow inventory to be steadily absorbed over the coming year, assuming the banks don’t do anything asinine like dump a ton of homes on the market at once.

To get your very own trashed out foreclosure list sent to your email just sign up.  You too can smell like a beast after viewing one of these gems.   Stinky homes not your thing?  Consider just looking at regular homes for sale.

Data used in this analysis was crunched from the WVMLS, single family homes under non-acreage properties.

August saw a bit of a jump up in home prices from last August.  I certainly wouldn’t say that home prices are appreciating in Keizer but last year was the end of the tax credit and July and August were dismal months in real estate.  Home prices really couldn’t get worse than after the tax credit ended.  With a current average of $175,297 and a median of $156,000, Keizer is fairly close to Salem median home prices.  

The 90 day absorption rate is 29.67 which means the current inventory of homes in Keizer is 7.3 months.  A bit better than Salem’s 9 months and just like Salem, Keizer is in a bit of a sweet spot for regular sellers as 50% of foreclosures have been pulled off the market temporarily.  In August 16% of homes sold in Keizer were foreclosures or short sales.  17% of active listings are designated as foreclosures or short sales right now.  Home sales were the best in three years in August, just like Salem’s numbers.  It wasn’t hard to beat last year so that doesn’t really count.  Overall good market numbers for Keizer.  If we didn’t have those stopped foreclosures looming ahead of us, I’d say Keizer is looking pretty darn sweet for real estate, but these numbers will probably get uglier in about 6-12 months, assuming the MERS foreclosure issues get resolved.

The 90 absorption rate in Salem is 145.67, which means that we currently have 9.24 months of inventory in Salem.  This steady drop is due to the lack of MERS foreclosures hitting our markets.  21% of MLS listings sold in August were distressed properties, and we’ve had our first decrease in active distressed properties with 18% of active listings being foreclosures or short sales.  We are in a “sweet spot” for sellers right now where the inventory has dropped (still not normal,  mind you) and interest rates are low.  This is a temporary situation that will last maybe 6-12 months until those MERS foreclosures start chugging through the judicial foreclosure process here in Oregon.

If you are thinking of selling your home, this spring may be your best shot for the next few years.  We are in a temporary sweet spot for regular sellers.   If you want help getting your home ready for sale just contact us and we will be happy to help.

Inventory in Salem Oregon is at 10.35 months currently.  Still a healthy ways away from the coveted 5-6 months of inventory we all desire, but still better than the one year plus inventories present for all of last year.  131 homes sold in July compared to the exceptionally dismal 102 that were sold in July 2010.  It was an ugly summer last year.

Foreclosures and short sales made up 21.3% of sold homes in July and has been inching up slowly over the past year.  I would anticipate that 25% of sales will be distressed properties by the end of the year.

Home prices took a tumble at the start of this year and the median was at $147,000 for July with a median of $152,000 year to date.  It has been hovering around $150,000 for most of this year as that seems to be the number that works for buyers.  Buyers in the starter home price range are finding that the good properties are getting scooped up fairly quickly and what is left isn’t exactly what they want.

Keizer currently has an 8.65 month inventory of homes.  So if no one else listed their home for sale in Keizer, it would take 8.65 months to sell what is currently listed.   Keizer is edging closer to that coveted 6 months of inventory which signifies a more normal real estate market and is well below Salem’s current inventory.

The flip side of these improving numbers is, of course, the decline in home prices that needed to go with them.

Home prices in Keizer Oregon

The median sold price in Keizer during the second quarter of this year was $167,000. It is a 27.8% drop from the peak in home prices and puts Keizer around 2005 home prices.  The number of homes listed to date in Keizer is down 27% as well contributing to the reduction in inventory.

See Homes for sale in Keizer

As you all know home prices have dropped oodles this year.  Yes, oodles is a statistically appropriate real estate term much like “needs a little TLC” means bulldoze the house.  Quarter over quarter from 2010, the median home price shifted downward 12.6% from 2010.  As I said in my rant post about the NAR before, this is entirely expected.  You can’t prop up housing prices with the tax credit without consequences.    The market has dropped 26% since the peak, and we are essentially at 2004 home prices.  So what that means is if you bought your home in 2007 and put $30,000 of remodeling into it, you won’t get it back.  Not even close.

So while that sounds like really horrible news, the good news is that inventory is currently at 10.7 months.  So if nothing else was put on the market, everything would be sold in 10.7 months.  Compare that with much of last year’s 15 month inventory and that is a definite improvement.  21% of homes that sold in the second quarter were foreclosures.   Ugly, but I’ll take it compared to some parts of California and Arizona.

So the number of homes sold in the second quarter was down compared to last year, but it’s that whole tax credit thing messing with the data again.  The 3rd quarter should show a big improvement from last year since all those summer buyers were shoved into the first two quarters.  Home sales are down 7% year to date from 2010, which is pretty good considering we don’t have a $7500 incentive this year.   The other positive aspect to the market we are seeing is fewer homes being listed for sale.  The regular seller knows it is a tough market and the number of homes listed over last year dropped.  This has really helped our inventory start to come down.   This is a good thing, and I encourage sellers that are wanting a certain price in order to sell to stay off the market.  While we are seeing some initial signs of stabilization, this is by no means a “let’s see if we get what we want” kind of market.

April 30th of 2010 ended the eligibility for the home buyer tax credit.  No big surprise that home sales were down year over year as a result.  Year to date sales are down 2.8% year over year.  I think this is pretty good considering the unnatural boost that happened in 2010 due to the credit.

Inventory is down to 10 months in Salem proper.  Last month it was 12 months, which means buyers were out at we ate up two months of inventory in just one month. Remember the goal is to get down to 6 months, which is that coveted normal inventory benchmark.

Home prices dropped just like in previous months.  Again, this wasn’t unexpected as we all know home prices were a bit inflated due to the tax credit of last year.  I think home prices are finally starting to get more inline with Salem incomes, but unemployment remains a problem which has impacted the market recovery.  The demand for lease options and owner financing has skyrocketed here locally with few sellers able to offer those options.

Improvement is happening in the market, but it will be a long slow process ahead.

Data in this blog was crunched from data provided by the WVMLS.

I kept thinking I didn’t need to do laundry, clean those toilets, or do market reports this month as I was sure that I was going to be gone on the 21st.   What is the point of crunching market data if I was one of the chosen?  Unfortunately, it does appear that Lucifer and I have spent too much time together for me to quality for Rapture.  Seduced by the dark side again, as usual.  As such, I have to write up my Salem market report for May.

Double bummer.

I can think of only one reason that home sales were down in April 2011 over 2010 and that has to do with everyone spending their money on their final days. Why buy a house, when you are going to fly in the air in just a few short weeks?

But the real reason home sales were down over last year is because April 30th was the last day to get under contract for the home buyer tax credit.  This isn’t a big surprise. 2009 continues to be the worst real estate year and while the market is still volatile, sales have been up since then.

Salem also saw a pre-Rapture plummet in home prices.  Clearly home buyers were out in droves looking for heavenly home prices here in Salem.  I guess their thinking was if they were going to get pulled away from our good earth, then it better be a screaming deal.   The average home price in April was $165,998 and the median $154,937.   2007 was the peak in the Salem market and the average is down 30.2% since then and the median is down 26.5%.

Foreclosures and short sales were 17% of homes sold in April so they are a growing part of our market segment and will be for some time.

Now that I finished my market report it means I have to clean my toilets and do some laundry.  Damn Rapture letting me down.  I guess if I need to be taken away, I’ll just have to go to my old standby, Calgon.

Inventory is at 14 months right now in Keizer.  This means that if no one else puts their home on the spring and summer real estate markets, it will take 14 months to sell everything that is already out there.  That’s a lot of homes for sale.

Home prices have responded to that high inventory and they have really dropped in this first quarter, but I will say that I think the data is a bit misleading.  Last year the first quarter was spurred by the tax credit incentive.  Buyers had to be under contract by April 30th so there was this early frenzy.  Now Salem still had a better first quarter than 2010′s frenzied quarter, which is great.  This poorer performance this year doesn’t mean Armageddon for the Keizer real estate market though.  The summer months were so heinous for both Salem and Keizer that it will make the market this year look robust.  That isn’t really the case either.  This is really our first year of an unpropped up market, and we get to see what the market is starting to do on its own. It isn’t pretty for sure, but no need to start stocking water and supplies for the final days of humanity either.   As it stands for March the average home price in Keizer was $170,565.

The first quarter of 2010 ended with 60 home sales an an average home price of $218,292.  The first quarter of 2011 ended with 52 home sales, a 13.3% drop, and an average home price of $181,790, a 16.7% drop.  The reason for these ugly numbers is caused by two main factors. The first being the tax credit inflating numbers in the first quarter last year, and then the increasing foreclosures.  In the 2010 first quarter, 10% of the homes sold in Keizer were listed as short sales or foreclosures.  In the 2011 first quarter that number was 19.2%.  Hangover from last year, increased foreclosures this year means downward pressure on the Keizer real estate market right now.

Data in this report was gathered from the WVMLS and represents single family homes (non acreage) properties.