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Home prices have continued to decline in Keizer, just like Salem.  The question is whether or not I was accurate in my predictions from last year.  I have an ego to maintain, you know.  Last year I predicted a 5% decline in home prices and a flat line in home sales.  So how did I fare?

Well like Salem I underestimated the decline a bit.  The median shifted downward by 7.7, so I missed it by 2.7%.    The average home price declined by 9.2% which isn’t surprising as fewer high end homes are selling to keep the average up.  With smaller data figures like this, the median is a better way to look at the data.   So off by a bit, but pretty close.

How did I do on home sales?  Oh…so close.  Check out this lovely graph.  2 more sales in 2011 over 2010.  It doesn’t get much better than that for flat lining.   Keizer home sales have been stalled at these levels for three years, and quite frankly it will probably be like this again in 2012.

So what do all my lovely charts mean to you?  The good news is that banks are still having trouble foreclosing on MERS involved properties so the inventory is at 9.7 months which is decent for these economic times.  This means not great conditions for sellers but better. Multiple offers are happening on occasion, not the norm by any means, but they are happening.  Less competition is good for our regular sellers.

This stagnation for buyers means that sellers are still feeling the pain a bit and many have accepted current market conditions.  Buyers are having better choices in the regular real estate market without having to delve into the distressed property market which means good things for buyer paid closing costs and needed repairs.

So my predictions for next year?.  Honestly, the exact same thing. I think the market will continue to decline another 5% of so and home sales will remain flat lined.  There just aren’t enough buyers that qualify for financing to have any kind of big pop in home buying.

Phew…my ego is still intact.   I know you were all deeply worried about that part.

Data in these charts was crunched from data collected from the WVMLS for single family non-acreage properties.

August saw a bit of a jump up in home prices from last August.  I certainly wouldn’t say that home prices are appreciating in Keizer but last year was the end of the tax credit and July and August were dismal months in real estate.  Home prices really couldn’t get worse than after the tax credit ended.  With a current average of $175,297 and a median of $156,000, Keizer is fairly close to Salem median home prices.  

The 90 day absorption rate is 29.67 which means the current inventory of homes in Keizer is 7.3 months.  A bit better than Salem’s 9 months and just like Salem, Keizer is in a bit of a sweet spot for regular sellers as 50% of foreclosures have been pulled off the market temporarily.  In August 16% of homes sold in Keizer were foreclosures or short sales.  17% of active listings are designated as foreclosures or short sales right now.  Home sales were the best in three years in August, just like Salem’s numbers.  It wasn’t hard to beat last year so that doesn’t really count.  Overall good market numbers for Keizer.  If we didn’t have those stopped foreclosures looming ahead of us, I’d say Keizer is looking pretty darn sweet for real estate, but these numbers will probably get uglier in about 6-12 months, assuming the MERS foreclosure issues get resolved.

While that lowly 79 homes sold in the 2nd quarter in Keizer Oregon might look a bit lame compared to last year, last year was an off year because of the tax credit.  Overall, better than 2009 so that’s good.

Keizer currently has an 8.65 month inventory of homes.  So if no one else listed their home for sale in Keizer, it would take 8.65 months to sell what is currently listed.   Keizer is edging closer to that coveted 6 months of inventory which signifies a more normal real estate market and is well below Salem’s current inventory.

The flip side of these improving numbers is, of course, the decline in home prices that needed to go with them.

Home prices in Keizer Oregon

The median sold price in Keizer during the second quarter of this year was $167,000. It is a 27.8% drop from the peak in home prices and puts Keizer around 2005 home prices.  The number of homes listed to date in Keizer is down 27% as well contributing to the reduction in inventory.

See Homes for sale in Keizer