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I stated a couple of weeks ago that Salem had the best first quarter, in terms of real estate home sales, in the past three years.  Not the highest home prices mind you, but that sales picked up.  This isn’t true for the Keizer real estate market.  Home sales are incredibly sluggish there right now.

Inventory is at 14 months right now in Keizer.  This means that if no one else puts their home on the spring and summer real estate markets, it will take 14 months to sell everything that is already out there.  That’s a lot of homes for sale.

Home prices have responded to that high inventory and they have really dropped in this first quarter, but I will say that I think the data is a bit misleading.  Last year the first quarter was spurred by the tax credit incentive.  Buyers had to be under contract by April 30th so there was this early frenzy.  Now Salem still had a better first quarter than 2010′s frenzied quarter, which is great.  This poorer performance this year doesn’t mean Armageddon for the Keizer real estate market though.  The summer months were so heinous for both Salem and Keizer that it will make the market this year look robust.  That isn’t really the case either.  This is really our first year of an unpropped up market, and we get to see what the market is starting to do on its own. It isn’t pretty for sure, but no need to start stocking water and supplies for the final days of humanity either.   As it stands for March the average home price in Keizer was $170,565.

The first quarter of 2010 ended with 60 home sales an an average home price of $218,292.  The first quarter of 2011 ended with 52 home sales, a 13.3% drop, and an average home price of $181,790, a 16.7% drop.  The reason for these ugly numbers is caused by two main factors. The first being the tax credit inflating numbers in the first quarter last year, and then the increasing foreclosures.  In the 2010 first quarter, 10% of the homes sold in Keizer were listed as short sales or foreclosures.  In the 2011 first quarter that number was 19.2%.  Hangover from last year, increased foreclosures this year means downward pressure on the Keizer real estate market right now.

Data in this report was gathered from the WVMLS and represents single family homes (non acreage) properties.

Like the Salem real estate market, the Keizer market saw a minor uptick in sales.  1 over last year.  That counts as an uptick, right?  Statistically the numbers are so low you can’t really say anything with accuracy other than the market is still insanely slow.  That much, I can say for sure.

Of concern for the Keizer market is the growing inventory.  It is currently at 16.5 months which has been steadily growing over the past year.  Like the Salem market, short sales and foreclosures make up 17.2% of active listings and 21% of what has sold in the past two months have been these distressed properties.

The impact is clear when you look at the year over year numbers for February home sales.  Last February the average sales price was $231,762 and compare that to this February’s $173,710.  Buyers of homes in Keizer are clearly stating where they are willing to spend their money.  Keizer, like Salem has seen an increase in activity as buyers are sensing that home prices are in the low, foreclosures are taking longer to sell, and there are low interest rates. Bargain hunters are out searching and waiting for that great deal.  This isn’t good news for regular home sellers as they will have buyers hovering over their properties but not getting any offers.

You can view homes for sale or foreclosed homes for sale if you are thinking about buying in the Keizer market.

The talk around the real estate water cooler is pretty basic…”so what year are you at?”  Some cities are at 2001-2002 pricing, thankfully Keizer Oregon is not.  Real estate in Keizer took a header off the diving board in 2009 landing in a nice belly flop in 2010.

The chart is pretty clear that the median and average home prices were almost identical to 2009 numbers.  The average home price dropped just 2.2% and the median shifted downward a mere 2.7%.   My guess was a 5% drop like Salem and I was wrong.  I guessed too high BUT I did qualify my guess last year with the fact that my crystal ball broke and I hadn’t had any coffee yet before making that prediction.

Home sales in Keizer Oregon

So what year is real estate at in Keizer?  Pretty close to 2005 levels.  So if you bought in 2005, you’re about break even right now, statistically speaking.  The number of homes sold tells the story though.  Even though Keizer might be at 2005 pricing levels, sales aren’t even close.  The number of homes sold continues to drop, and went down 4.9% from 2009.

That’s ugly.

You can see that sales are about half of what they should be.  I think home sales will probably be about the same in 2011 or a bit higher.

Foreclosures in Keizer Oregon

With unemployment still high, and foreclosures still increasing in Keizer, the market will still have downward pressure on it for 2011.  Foreclosure notice filings were up 9.7% in Keizer in 2010 over 2009.

You don’t need my keen sense of analysis to tell you that isn’t good, right?

My predictions for next year…more of the same.  5% decline in home prices, and flat lined home sales.  This prediction is given with the following disclaimers:

• I reserve the right to change my mind about my prediction at any time because I am a woman.  So sue me.
• I make no guarantees about what you will see in these graphs if you went mushroom hunting in the Oregon forests and didn’t run your mushrooms by the Forest Service.  Your bad.
• I make no claims about how much your home will depreciate in value if you fail to vote for your favorite restaurant on the Eat Salem Blog.  Vote here.

If you want to get on the list of foreclosures for Keizer Oregon, or if you want to buy something that doesn’t involve a 12 page bank addendum, shoot me an email and I’m glad to help.

The data used in this blog was generated from information provided by the WVMLS and Fidelity National Title Co.