Get Real Estate Blog: Salem Oregon Home Trends and Relocation Information

Well it is still cold here in the Salem Oregon area. Typically it isn’t cold like this without ice and snow. It has been really sunny which is deceptive to we Oregonians this time of year. It’s just plain cold out there.

So, as I sit in my office in the cold, with some nice hot cocoa this time, it’s time to look at the Keizer Oregon real estate numbers. Keizer, of course, looked pretty good last month. This month it looked pretty like it has for the past four Novembers…slow.

November traditionally is not a huge month in real estate in our area. Keizer stayed on track and had a very normal November. Sales were pretty much flat and have been for the past four years.  While it looks like there is a mild drop, there were 25 sales this year vs. 27 last year.  The sample is just too small to really say the minor drop has any significance.

As for home prices with this small sample…Average home price was down just 2.3% year over year.  The median saw a greater shift due to the foreclosures and short sales and the lower end of the market.  The median home price dropped 10.5% as a result. The good news about the average staying up…it means that a few more expensive homes were able to sell and get cleared off the real estate market shelf.  That is good.

So where does this leave us?

Current inventory is 7.24 months which is a bump up from last months 5 month inventory, but that is to be expected. With the run in real estate to get the tax credit plus the normal lack of sales this time of year, this bump in inventory isn’t too concerning at this point.  As with the Salem Oregon real estate market, I would expect to see some stabilization if the home prices stay down, but a bottom or true stabilization can’t be called until the end of the tax credit occurs in April 2010.

As always if you have any questions about the Keizer, Oregon real estate market just hit the ask the broker tab and well…ask.

P.S.  These market statistics were crunched from data provided by the WVMLS.

Okay it’s cold today in Salem Oregon.  Yikes.  So I’m sitting with my nice WARM cup of coffee and going to crank out some November real estate numbers for you all for Salem Oregon.

So where did November leave us after the really good October?

In better and worse condition.

What’s better?

Well, sales were up 126% over last November which stunk beyond belief, in technical real estate lingo…  it has hard to NOT do better than last year’s November’s numbers.  But Nov 08 aside, the sales volume returned to a more normal volume, which is good. It is much more consistent with the early years of the decade so in essence a return to normal.    So that part is good.

What else is better?

Well the median and average home prices continue to stay down which is good in order to maintain affordability in our area.  If homes aren’t affordable they won’t sell. That simple.  The average home price dropped 13.9% over last years $217,192 to this year’s $186, 920.  The median home price dropped 11.2% from last year’s $196,500 to this year’s $174,480.  This is good news for the ongoing health of the market.

So what’s worse?

Well, inventory popped up.  Inventory is now at 8.3 months. Now this isn’t unexpected this time of year since most people don’t want to move close to the holidays so we tend to sell fewer homes, but we also tend to have fewer listings at this time of the year as well to compensate.  Higher inventories can mean that prices are still in flux and not at the bottom yet.  As I have said before, I’m not willing to really call a real estate bottom until the market stands on it’s own without the tax incentive, but  we’ll have to see what inventory numbers do in the next couple of months.  Overall…not bad.

Side note:  Real estate market report information was crunched from data from the WVMLS.

The Keizer Oregon real estate market has been one of the most stable markets in the Salem metro area for most of the year.  While it has had it’s woes, really that market seems to have corrected for the most part.

Inventory, which is an important statistic in the world of real estate, is a gauge of the supply and demand in an individual market. The more in line these are, the healthier that real estate market.

You can see that the huge spike in inventory at the start of the year has steadily dropped and has hovered in the neutral market range for the past 3 months.  I can’t honestly call a stable market or bottom until after the tax credit ends.  I think that we need to see what the market can do on it’s own before calling a bottom, but it does appear to be stabilizing for now.

Sales volume has been fairly stable in Oct for the past 4 years.  It was only down by 6% from Oct 2008, compared to Oct 2009.  There will be normal market fluctuations so I don’t find this statistic particularly concerning.

Despite some signs of stability it doesn’t mean that home sellers can start to think that they will get 2007 and 2008 home prices.  The reason that there is some stability is because home prices did drop, which put them more in line with local incomes.  Current home prices are the norm.  Not 2008 prices.

Year over year,  the average price of a home in Keizer Oregon dropped 12.3% and the median home priced dropped 13.3%.  So home sellers, if your friend sold a similar house to yours last year, you can expect to get 10-15% less than they did.

This is clearly where home prices need to be in order to be affordable for home buyers.

I’m trying to come up with a pithy title for my monthly real estate reports and realize I have very little creativity in the literature department…I feel bad for my AP English teacher in high school…I appear to have fallen off the creativity wagon a bit… While I try and come up with something catchy, I will forge ahead with my monthly data…

So do you want the good news, the good news, or the good news first…

You pick the good news?  Cool.

It’s no secret to Salem Oregon real estate agents that October was busy.  We all had to figure out how to get out of pajamas and actually write contracts last month.

The good news...median home price was down (I know I’m weird that I think that is good news)

The good news…Salem Oregon homes sales were up 31% over last October

The good news…the current home inventory as I write is 6.1 months for Salem Oregon.

What happened?  Median home price shifted downward by 10% year over year (ie Oct to Oct).  While that isn’t good news for our underwater sellers, it is good news for the overall health of the real estate market, and honestly…we really want a healthy market.  It’s better for all of us in the long run.  That shift down in price, plus the tax credit for some buyers was enough to get folks to dive into the Salem Oregon real estate market.  It’s that dang supply and demand principle thingy again…

I would expect that as long as prices stay down like this, that we should see some stabilization in the market.  While the extension and expansion of the tax credit is nice, the driving factor for home sales should be price.  If prices are reasonable, people can afford to buy.  Pretty simple, I think.

If you are thinking about diving into the Salem Oregon real estate market, but want to watch it for a bit, I can get you started.  Just tell me what you want to track.

P.S.  All data used on this post was crunched from the data on the WVMLS.  Thanks WVMLS!

Today I had to break out my hooded raincoat.  As the rain stopped and started today, I gave in to the inevitable…that our great Oregon summer is over.  I actually like Oregon in the autumn since the colors start to turn, but the first rainy day is always hard for me.  Between having to break out my rain coat, AND wanting to throttle the REO manager at Freddie Mac over a current transaction, I was looking for some good news…

Keizer delivered.

5.2 months is the current inventory of homes in Keizer Oregon. Any agent that has done any transactions there recently realizes that homes are moving well there.   This is not unexpected since the Keizer real estate market has been fairly strong through this rough economy.  BUT keep this in perspective.

For homes under $200,000 there is a 4 month inventory

For homes between $200-$300,000 there is a 9.4 month inventory

For homes over $400,000 there is a 15.7 month inventory.

So if you have a $450,000 home please don’t think that particular sector is doing well.  Really…if a home is priced under $250,000, preferably under $200,000, those homes are actually starting to teeter towards a seller’s market.  That’s where most people can buy and demand is strong as a result.

I can also say this based on personal experience that those lower priced, nice Keizer homes are getting snapped up quickly.  You’ll have a bit more negotiating power if you are willing to take on a house that needs some work…and you can avoid a Freddie Mac REO like the plague…but I digress from my market data…

So quarter over quarter…

Sales  stayed a flat 0% 3rd quarter 2009 compared to 08. Flat is good.  We like flat.  The reason for the nice low inventory in Keizer is the 13.7% plunge in the median home price that occurred quarter over quarter.   Home prices dropped 13.7% since 3rd quarter last year and are down 22.2% since the peak in 3rd quarter 2006.

This return to affordability has left many buyers finally able to dive into the Keizer real estate market.  Back to basics:  supply and demand.

Last month I talked about that the Salem Oregon real estate market appeared to be entering the skid phase.  Unlike optimists who think some kind of v bounce will occur, I think a skid with essentially no appreciation in home values is more likely.

September marked the end of the 3rd quarter.  The nice thing about using quarterly data is that we have more data to work with which gives us more accurate trending.  So…the good news, you ask?

Homes sales were up 8.1% in the 3rd quarter this year over 2008.  The median home priced dropped 6.3% for that same time frame.  I think the median price might have dropped a bit more, but I think with the tax credit buyers seemed a bit more willing to compromise on price.

Now I still think things we be flat for at least through next year and maybe well into 2011 depending on what happens with our unemployment rate.    Flat is good in this economy though.

Inventory for the Salem Oregon real estate market bumped up just a bit to 10.95 months.  I think there are two reasons for this increase.  With the uptick in sales, sellers started to go ahead and list thinking the market was improving and the other is the folks being hit by unemployment are trying to sell their homes before they head to foreclosure.

Of the homes that sold in the 3rd quarter 11.4% were distressed properties (ie short sales and foreclosures).  The percentage creeps up slightly every month, but they are still a small portion of the Salem real estate market relatively speaking.

What happens to our local real estate market after the tax credit ends will give us an idea of how much the tax credit propped up the local real estate market.

Silverton Oregon real estate…what’s going on?

Silverton has probably been one of the local Salem Oregon area real estate markets that has struggled the most.  Where Keizer is almost at a normal state, Silverton continues to struggle coming down to reality.

Why do I say this?  I mean the numbers are definitely looking better for Silverton, but here are the hard numbers.

1) 33.8% of what has listed this year has sold.  Compare that with a more normal real estate year, like 2005 which was 48.8%.  Sales volume is still off.  13 properties closed in August in Silverton, which is still down from more normal markets.

2) The median home price for August was $262,500 down from 2008’s $269,529, but still well over 2006’s $229,000.  Silverton home prices are still too high. This is the reason for such sluggish sales there.  People just can’t afford to buy homes there.  Home prices will have to come down some more until the supply and demand is more congruent.  Sorry home sellers.

3) Inventory is coming down and  sits at 10.92 months right now.  This is coming down nicely from last year where inventories were sometimes at 24 months.

4) 23% of sold homes (according to the WVMLS)  in August were distressed properties. Like all the Salem Oregon metro towns, foreclosures and short sales are having an impact on our local housing market.

What does this mean for home buyers and sellers in Silverton?  Sellers are going to have to continue to come down in price in order to attract a buyer that can afford the payments.  Home buyers need to continue to watch the Silverton market knowing it needs some correcting.  There are some well priced homes there buyers.  Don’t assume that a well priced home is overpriced there.  If you need help navigating the Silverton real estate market, give me an email and I’d be happy to talk with you about your real estate needs there.

I’ve talked about Keizer a lot. It was a bastion of sanity while the rest of the Salem Oregon real estate markets were going in the toilet.  Keizer flat lined and then plunged, but still remained some semblance of decency during it’s drop.  Keizer did what I think most of the Salem Oregon area real estate markets should have done.  Drop fast.  I think getting the pain over with in one fell swoop is better than this slow bleed that Salem has done.

In August 24% of homes that sold in Keizer (according to WVMLS data anyway) were distressed properties (ie short sales and foreclosures).  The unemployment rate in Oregon has taken it’s toll, Keizerites no exception.  That’s a big chunk of the market for these parts.   I know some agents in parts of Florida where 90% of homes sold are distressed properties, so in the big picture of housing markets, really Keizer is doing quite well.

This doesn’t mean sellers can be cocky.

The current median home price is $198,000 in Keizer.  In August 2008 it was $216,500.  That’s an 8.5% price drop year over year.  Sales are down 19.4% over August 2008, but you’d never know that with only a 6.86 month real estate inventory.

You read that right. Keizer Oregon is at only 6.86 months.  Just a hair over neutral.  Keizer is almost out of a buyer’s market and into that coveted neutral market.   Anyone doing any transactions in Keizer will tell you that it is still a solid real estate market.

I’ve been a bit slow on the blogging front these past couple of weeks. Between a needed vacation, actually working with real people, and school starting, there hasn’t been a lot of time to blog about our local Salem Oregon real estate market.

The good news for all 4 of my dear local readers is that my kids are in school as of today, so I can start to bore you with my long winded real estate market stats It’s time to get back to my regularly scheduled blogging pattern.

So for those of you ready to be bored silly with market stats…this one’s for you. Drum roll….ssshhh…don’t tell anyone I said this, but August was looking pretty good. Sshhh…

Inventory is at 9.7 months right now. Not at that normal neutral market level yet, but considering that we stated the year around 16-18 months, that is excellent. It’s a slow process and will continue to be a slow process, but the market does appear to be breaking and dare I say…skidding. I’m not quite ready to call bottom, but I think we could be close to entering the skid phase in our real estate market. I’m anticipating we will have a period of a couple years with essentially no appreciation/depreciation in our home values. Essentially our market will flatline or skid along the bottom as the economy fumbles to recover. That’s just my opinion.

The average and median home prices were down since last years, which was expected. The sales volume was up 7.6% from last August’s numbers. This makes sense since prices were down, sales went up. We saw this same dynamic in June which also had more sales than June of 2008.

So folks that want to buy real estate in Salem Oregon what this means for you is that if you want to dive in, now is a good time to start watching the market. There will be some normal seasonal variation in prices, but I think we are pretty close to skidding. The thing about skidding is that things will be flat for a while. There is time to sit and watch if you are unsure. Wait a minute? Did I really just tell you guys to wait if you are unsure? Uh-oh…I think I forgot to get my “It’s a great time to buy” mantra card.

For folks that want to sell a home in Salem Oregon, it’s still tough for you. 11.6% of closings in August, in Salem Oregon, were distressed properties (ie short sales and foreclosures). This number has been steadily creeping up all year, and will continue to creep up until unemployment rates go down. You still have to be super competitive with pricing. If you need to “hit” a certain number, then you are probably better off not listing your home.

If you read any local real estate blogs all of them have been talking about and linking to the Forbes article that named Salem Oregon one of the top 10 real estate markets best primed for a recovery. Salem Oregon was named #4. The criteria used for their top 10 list was an uptick in sales AND a low number of distressed property sales.

Salem Oregon does have a low number of forecloure and short sale properties on our real estate market place where compared with some other areas.  That part, I think our city is doing well in, comparatively speaking.

So…I looked at sales.  Now, in real estate sales are very cyclical because no one wants to move in the rain out here. As such it is important to compare the same months over time. I can’t compare January to June because we are all drinking hot coca in January from the warm comfort of our homes…not out house hunting.

For Salem Oregon proper, our home sales are down 19.4% from the same time period (Jan-July) from 2008.  This is according to data pulled from the WVMLS.  Now the article pulls its data from Zillow, but I don’t think that 19.4% of sales were FSBO’s.   So we have a data problem.   There was a nice positive uptick in sales volume in June, but it declined again in July.  Most of the year has been into the negatives as you can see in the chart.

So when I went back and reread the article it said that they pulled the statistical area, which probably pulls from Marion and Polk counties.    So I pulled those numbers…18.5% drop in sales volume.

So…I don’t know how they are calculating their data. Sales are off in our area.  Salem Oregon area sellers, if you happen to read that Forbes article, please understand that the data may not be right.