Get Real Estate Blog: Salem Oregon Home Trends and Relocation Information

Okay guys…you all have to put up with a little bit of real estate advertising every so often so this is fair warning! I organized an open house tour of some south Salem acreage properties. You can see what is on the tour on the google map. I have this seriously cool old home, that was the original Halls Ferry School, that is for sale. It is one of those places that you really have to go into to experience because pictures don’t do it justice.

So, this Sunday, I will be hanging out there from 1-4 showing people this cool place. I expect you all to come and visit me there. Hint, hint…okay hit you over the head with a hammer… I know that some of the people reading this blog aren’t looking to buy, BUT if you know anyone that likes old homes, PLEASE tell them to stop by and see this one. In fact, if you come into the open house and tell me that you read about the open house on my blog, I will give you a $10 gift certificate to French Press. That’s how awesome I am.

Oh, and if you want to meet John Kirk, who will at some point get his hiney in gear and be writing more posts here, he’ll be on the tour at 6685 Trillium. I really think Capital Taps and John need to meet since John is a brewer…this is your chance!

5032 Halls Ferry Rd, listed by Melina Tomson with Tomson Burnham, llc

$289,000 3 bed/1.5 bath, 2188 sq feet, 1.27 acres

View South Salem Small Acreage Tour of Homes in a larger map

So do you really want to know how they do it?

You know…build a house in a week.

You’ve all watched the show…some of you may have cried…some of you may have gagged at the sappiness.  Either way, Extreme Makeover is hitting Salem Oregon.

If you are interested in volunteering or donating you can head over to the website for more information. They are, of course, looking for skilled trades people to help out as much as possible.  I know someone that participated in one up in the Seattle area and they said it was nuts.  Nuts meaning crazy busy.  So, if you are up for a nutty, crazy busy adventure…this is for you.

Like many Salem Oregon real estate agents, my transactions all seem to be from hell.  Not because I don’t have amazing clients; not because I don’t have a great loan officer involved ; and not because I don’t have a great escrow officer around me.   It is hard to find a post that says anything positive about banks, loan officers, appraisers, lenders…well let’s just throw real estate agents into that mix as well.  Rant this…rant that.  Everyone sucks, except of course the person writing the rant.    If my child told me today that he wanted to be an underwriter when he grew up, I’d be thinking I need to start those electric shock treatments NOW because clearly he isn’t right in his head.   I have spent many a sleepless night wondering what incredible minuscule detail the underwriter will use to derail my clients that are attorneys, journalists, doctors, teachers…you know, the people we generally consider stable home buyers, from getting a loan.  I’ve never seen such scrutiny to the point of ridiculousness.  I’d laugh if my clients weren’t so stressed out.

A couple of months ago, I had a client in distress.  The good news…I got them an offer AND we could clear title.  This situation seemed an anomaly to the bank who requested my short sale packet.

“This is NOT a short sale…we can clear title,”  I said.

“Huh?” was the reply. Clearly the concept of being able to clear title was something they hadn’t heard in a while.

“I just need to verify that you got my authorization form to talk to you?”

“No, you’re not in the system.”

“I’ve faxed it over three times now. I NEED to talk to someone, right now.”

“Can’t do it without the authorization form.”

“I understand that. Can I have a supervisor?”

My problem?

House under contract.  Inspections done.  Appraisal done.  Title report done.  DOCS at escrow. Buyer has signed.  What’s the problem?  The bank wouldn’t give the escrow company a payoff balance.  I’ve never heard of a bank not wanting to get their money back, but okay…there is a first for everything.  As I worked my way up the supervisor chain, I found a supervisor to just listen to me. The conversation pretty much went this way…

“Hey, legally you can’t talk to me without the authorization form that your company can’t seem to input into the system, so I’ll talk and you listen.  Here is what I need you to do…”

After saying what I needed to say, I hung up and Ted, the supervisor from the bank who just listened, took care of things.  The transaction closed 48 hours later.  I called Ted back and left a message saying thank you for not talking to me and just listening.   I called the buyer agent and gave her a big thank you for keeping her client in the real estate transaction as we worked through the mess.  I called the escrow offer and said thank you for hustling once we got what we needed.  I called and said thank you because they aren’t all the enemy…well maybe with the exception of underwriters.  They are still on my crap list.

A couple of days ago charges were announced related to real estate fraud.  According to the press release by the FBI in Oregon,

Among the 39 defendants named today are two real estate agents, 11 mortgage brokers, one bank loan officer, and one certified public accountant (CPA).

There are some ongoing investigations and they are expecting more charges to occur.

I don’t know why, but I feel compelled to comment on this.  I was having a hilarious and off tangent facebook conversation with some other real estate agents from across the country focused on the term “raising the bar.”  It’s the current term agents cry out to express the need for greater standards in our industry.  That battlecry has been going on for my entire career as a real estate agent here in Salem  and honestly, the bar hasn’t been raised a whole lot here in Oregon.  I mean Oregon just put into law that a real estate agent has to have a high school diploma or GED.  That wasn’t in the books before.  That’s like raising the bar a millimeter.  Not sure that is what the battlecry is about.

Personally I,  like these other fellow agents, am tired of the battlecry.  See here’s the deal.  The government can’t regulate behavior: they can only regulate systems.  It is up to each of us that makes up the system to regulate our behavior. If we want to talk about real estate fraud then brokerage owners need to look at how they fail to train their agents.    If we want to talk about improving the world of real estate it is up to the business owners, whether your own a brokerage or a mortgage business to have their own standards.  Government has never been about raising the bar; it has always been about the lowest notch on the bar. It is the responsibility of the business owners to ensure that we are well above that lowest notch.

I am not the biggest brokerage in town.  I don’t have “bragging rights” that I have 100 agents working at my firm.  I also don’t have to worry about real estate fraud.  I don’t have to worry that I have a mediocre agent in my midst.  My agents have direct access to a real estate attorney for any help they need.  Part of preventing fraud is making sure your agents can be successful so that they aren’t in a position of having to compromise their ethics.  I’d rather be the smallest game in town, with the best agents, even if there are only a few of us.

Me…I’m not aiming for the lowest notch.   Forget about raising the bar for the industry.  Raise the bar for yourself or your brokerage.  Consumers know the difference.

To some Oregonian’s, all of Oregon’s woes are caused by Californian’s making Oregon, well, like California.  Big houses, plastic surgery, flashy wealth, and a general disregard for the slow paced style of Oregon life are often quoted as what it means to be “Californian.”   The huge bump in Salem Oregon real estate prices was squarely placed on the heads of these folks by some locals.   So, really are Californian’s the only ones that have been moving into Oregon?

Forbes has this cool map that shows the influx into Marion county.  The black lines represent those moving here and red lines are those moving away.  Not surprisingly those moving away from Oregon to sunny climates such as Arizona and Texas.  I’ll admit, especially after this dismal start to summer, that the gray can get irritating.  Personally,  I was thinking about some kind of sacrifice to the Sun Gods who have apparently abandoned we Oregonians…but I digress.  While I am not a hot weather person, I can see the desire some folks would have to head to a warmer climate.

I have to say that I always thought that the Californian’s are coming was a bit of a crock. I work with so many people relocating to Salem Oregon from all over the country that I really don’t see that imbalance.  Unfortunately, this map indicates that indeed the largest influx into Marion county is from California.    Just for the heck of it, I clicked on Polk county, which has part of Salem as well, and um…yep…Californian’s again.

So much for debunking that local sentiment. Anyone got a horse and some lanterns?  The Californian’s really are coming.

P.S.  Dear Californians…Salem has an improving restaurant scene and we’d love to see more great local (ie, no chains) restaurants here.   If you want to open a restaurant, come on up, I say

As you have noticed, I haven’t posted in a bit, because it went from dead calm to a squall in my world of Salem Oregon real estate.   It isn’t a big secret that April was really busy in the world of real estate as those buyers that valued the tax credit played a mean game of tug-of-war with sellers as they tried to get an accepted low offer before closing.

Then calm, dead calm.  Showings dropped like a rock the first couple of weeks in May as buyers seemed to disappear from the face of the earth.  Time to panic?  It sure felt like it as an agent.   A week ago…a slight gale started…and I was reminded of something from what felt like eons ago…what was that?  Oh, yeah, the normal real estate cycle.  I’d almost forgotten what that was supposed to be like.

See in the normal, not tax credit influenced world of real estate, showings normally start to pick up around Memorial Day in Salem and buyers start to look.  True to the normal cycle of real estate this same pattern started as usual.  With the plunge of the Euro and low interest rates, it seems to have started faster than normal as buyers hoped to more than make up that $8,000 tax credit with the exceptionally low interest rates hovering for buyers these days.

As such…I’ve been seriously busy.  I haven’t forgotten about posting here.  I just need to batten down the hatches, and get ready for real estate season.

On the Powersites blog, they posted the question “Can a Realtor do too much?“  At issue was a marketing piece done by an Atlanta real estate agent showing her doing dishes, making the beds, and yes…scrubbing the toilets for her sellers in order to sell a house.  You can see the short video for yourself.

Selling a home in Salem Oregon is insanely difficult these days.  Inventory is high and lending is still difficult and transactions fail more often than before.  I get that what this agent is going for is that she will go above and beyond for her clients, but I’m interested to see what you all, the consumers, think of this.  Would you hire an agent that advertises themselves this way?

Me…I don’t clean windows…leaf blowing…dishes…you get the idea.

What do I do, since I don’t offer maid services as part of my real estate services?

1. Study the market data like a crazy agent to help a seller price the house for the current market. I mean if a market sector has a 5 year inventory of homes, then I’ll want to take a different pricing strategy than a market sector that has 4 months of inventory. If I spend all my time mowing lawns, I won’t have time to study the data and then my CMA is useless, but I might know how to get rid of that crabgrass that plagues us this time of year.  Crabgrass killer extraordinaire vs. Proper home pricing?  You decide.
2. Tour homes on the market weekly so that I’m familiar with what kinds of homes are selling and why. If I haven’t been in ANY of the homes that are in current competition with yours because I’m busy doing dishes for a seller, then my real estate expertise is useless, because that is why people hire agents…for real estate expertise…right?  OR are you just looking for someone that can make your dishes squeaky clean?
3. Read studies about how buyers find real estate information and make sure my listings are where buyers are. If the  crux of your real estate marketing plan is the Homes and Land Book and making your beds so it looks good for the non-existent people that actually read those real estate books, then maybe making beds for a living is in the future of that real estate agent.  Who needs online photos anyway?
4. Know how to get listings ready for market. If all I have to offer is that I can clean a toilet really well, then seriously…you need to not hire me.  My job is to know what is selling, why it is selling, and how to get your home in selling condition.   If that isn’t the point of a real estate agent, then I think I need to put my house on the market and get some free maid service for 6 months…Hmmm….I think I’m onto something here.

So for you sellers looking for a agents that knows the market, look no further, we are it.  If you are looking for a personal servant…just mosey on, ’cause I’m not the right person for you. 

Sorry…I don’t do toilets.

It’s official, unless you are in the military and spent time overseas, the real estate tax credit ends tomorrow night at 11:59 to be under contract.  At 12:00, I think many real estate agents will be heaving a sigh of relief.  While I am thankful for my clients that have been able to take advantage of the tax credit, I also realize that this comes at a cost to all of the taxpayers.  And let’s face it, tax payer money isn’t going up anytime soon with high unemployment.

It has been a crazy couple of weeks, hence my lack of blogging on here, but I just wanted to say goodbye to the tax credit and say hello to the unsupported real estate market heading our way.

Is that the correct term?  As someone who is new to blogging, I’m sure I’m going to have to learn a bunch of new terms.  I think of it as a topic or opinion that comes to my attention that I have an almost visceral reaction to.  After Melina asked me to start thinking about blogging, I seemed to be hit from several directions with these topics.

The one that hit me first was a marketing letter that I received in the mail from a competing broker at one of the big well-known firms here in town.  In the letter, that broker states several opinions about the housing market here in Salem Oregon that I believe are just flat-out wrong.  I’m going to share those opinions and my responses to each with the caveat that trying to predict the real-estate market is much like trying to predict the stock market.  If anyone could do it with a high degree of accuracy, they’d be very, very wealthy.  That said, I’m not afraid to go on record with my thoughts.

• The first opinion given in the letter is that area home prices are at bedrock.
• The second is that area home prices will INCREASE by 5% by the end of the year.
• The final statement is that housing will recover by 2011.

Before I give my response, please make it clear that I’m not trying to scare people.  It is a buyer’s market.  Inventory is up, demand is down, bank-owned and short-sale properties are putting downward pressure on the market, and interest rates are close to historical lows and I think it is a great time to buy.  I want people to buy and sell houses.  It’s my livelihood after all.  I also, however, feel that I am obligated to give people an honest assessment of the true condition of our market upon which they can make an informed decision.

I believe, based on my current market experience and news/data about the national and local economy that prices will continue to decline by 5-10% until we get to the end of 2010.  At year end 2009 the average home price in our MLS area was $215,432.  As of the end of February 2010 the average home price was $203,564.  That’s a decrease of 5.5%.  If we are to meet the other broker’s expectations for the market, we’ve got to increase from this point forward by 10.5%.  I just don’t see that happening.

That said, housing can still be an excellent investment.  If you are planning on living in the home you purchase for 5-7 years you should be able to enjoy the tax advantages and “forced savings” created by homeownership and be able ride home values to a gradual, sustainable recovery.  Not to mention, you’ll have a place to call your own.

This market is also great for a move-up buyer (someone who has outgrown their house or their area and wants to buy something more expensive).  Let’s say your current home was worth $200,000 three years ago.  The home you’re thinking of moving up to would have listed at, say, $300,000 three years ago.  The net difference is $100,000.

If we assume home prices have fallen by 25% since then, your current home is now worth $150,000.  The home you’re thinking about purchasing is now worth $225,000.  Net difference: $75,000.  If you can make the move financially, you can see that it makes sense to consider a move-up in a market like this…..especially when you factor in the very low current interest rates.

One of the major reasons I choose to join with Melina at Tomson Burnham is her dedication to providing honest, accurate information to her clients.  Our clients are smart people.  Once we educate them about our experience with the local Salem Oregon real estate market, I believe they will make the decision that is right for them, and that, ultimately, is our goal.

It seems that every time I go somewhere and someone finds out I’m a Salem Oregon real estate agent they always ask me about how the downtown condos are doing.  “Have any of them sold?” is often the question I get.   Both The Meridian and The Church Street Condos have sold units, but we all know this market is tough.

I just read in The Oregonian that First Citizens Bank of North Carolina who holds the note for The Meridian project just filed to foreclose on the project.  You can read the filing papers if you are so inclined, but it’s a lot of money, $35 million or so that the bank is owed.   I can’t say that I am surprised since so few units have sold in the complex, but it really is a beautiful building and I am saddened that it has come to this.  My understanding is that the developers are trying to negotiate with the lender and here’s hoping they are successful.