Get Real Estate Blog: Salem Oregon Home Trends and Relocation Information

As you head out of downtown on high street you will see some carpet warehouse buildings off to the left.  Head just a bit further and you will hit the Broadway revitalization area.  My swan feature this month is the Salem Cinema.

I’m a fan of movies and one of those people that likes to see movies that would be shown at Sundance.  As such, I was really excited to see a better venue for our independent movies here in Salem. The high street cinema is still there, but the new Salem Cinema is so nice!

Heading to Boon’s Treasury pre or post movie is such a nice treat, or just walk across the street and hit Christo’s for some pizza.  While there is still lots of work to be done is this area, this is a really nice addition that almost gives Salem an upscale feeling, even if it only lasts while you are in the theater.

So…for movie lovers looking to move to the Salem Oregon area, we have our regular theaters, and don’t forget to pay a visit to the new Salem Cinema.

Last one year end market report.    Whew…I need a break from data and I’m sure my regular readers are getting tired of data too!’

So let’s talk Stayton real estate.

Stayton has been struggling for a while and that hasn’t changed.  The inventory is currently at 36 months, which is high even for our normal slow months.  I wish I had better stats to share with you for Stayon, but I don’t.  If you want cheery news you’ll have to go to Aumsville.

So Stayton…

The average home priced dropped 11.9% to $192, 156 and the median shifted upwards 2.2% to $189,900.  I think the median shifted up as there were some more expensive foreclosures that hit the Stayton market, pulling the median up.   I don’t think that the Stayton real estate market is close to recovering or bottom for that matter.

I think it is still in a world of hurt over there.

I think this becomes more apparent when we look at the number of homes listed vs. the number of homes sold.  What is supply and demand looking like in Stayton?

Honestly, better, but not good.

The larger the gap between the red and blue lines, the worse the inventory and hence, supply and demand, are.

You can see we have clearly come off the peak, but things aren’t in any great shape.  From 2008, the number of homes sold dropped 10.9%.  Now that was offset a bit by a drop (28.2%) in the number of homes listed but supply and demand still aren’t working well together in Stayton.

So what does that mean for 2010?

Stayton home prices will have to continue to come down to correct the supply and demand imbalance.  Like Silverton, I would not be surprised at all, and in fact would expect to see, home prices drop another 10% in this area.  Inventory just isn’t getting eaten up fast enough to keep home prices stabilized.  Sorry Stayton home sellers.  I wish the trends were looking better for your area.

I feel off the data geek bandwagon here for a few days as I actually had to work…yes I really do negotiate offers and show houses on occasion.

So let’s talk Aumsville.

Aumsville ended the year at an average home price of $206,542  and a median home price of $209,500.  That average home price was a 1.5% INCREASE (I’m writing it in all caps, because it is the first time I get to write it) over 2008. The median, however, is down 5.2%.  The cause of this is due to the newer JDC subdivision in Aumsville, Highberger Meadows.  Several homes sold there, which are generally more expensive than Aumsville homes typically are.  The median which is the number where 50% are higher and 50% are lower is a bit more accurate for smaller towns since it swings less due to a high priced home selling.

Not that it means bad things for the Aumsville real estate market.

In fact I think good things, relatively speaking, are in store for Aumsville for 2010.  The same number of homes sold in 2009 as 2008.  Nice and flat.  What I really liked was the nice drop in homes listed.  A 30% drop in fact.  This nice drop has brought supply and demand much closer together.  Aumsville supply and demand has traditionally been very close and I think it still needs a bit of tweaking, but not bad.

I am interested to see how real estate does in Aumsville after the completion of the Home Depot distribution center.  With it’s easy access to the Mill Creek Industrial Park,  and the Cascade School District (generally speaking) getting better marks than East Salem schools, it will be interesting to see if the Sanyo Plant and Home Depot center keep Aumsville real estate going in the right direction. I’m kind of thinking it will.

P.S.  Data used in this report was calculated from information provided by the WVMLS.

Monmouth ended the year at an average home price of $180,887  and a median home price of $181,500    Monmouth home prices are about 11% higher than Independence and I think it shows in their year end numbers.    Monmouth has an 8.6 month inventory which is higher than Independence.

The average and median home prices did drop 12.7%  and 13.6% respectively from 2008 but it wasn’t enough.

Couple the drop in home prices with a 10% decrease in homes listed AND a 27.4% decrease in homes sold over 2008, and what you get is an ongoing supply and demand problem.  Last year homes listed versus homes sold was 55.4% in Monmouth and this year it was 45.2%.  Despite the number of homes listed going down, it just wasn’t enough.

Monmouth had been a fairly stable real estate market and while inventory is up, I don’t expect anything drastic for this small real estate market for 2010.  I would expect some ongoing price declines and Monmouth may correct another 5% or so, but it has one of the lowest rates of distressed properties on the market, 7.6%, in the Salem metro area.  Since employment in Monmouth is driven by the university, I wouldn’t expect to see a huge increase in foreclosures in this town.

P.S.  Data used in this report was calculated from information provided by the WVMLS.

What happens when you have low home prices, coupled with low interest rates?  Low inventory.  That is the situation occurring in Independence Oregon’s real estate market right now.  The inventory is at a nice healthy 4.5 months, which is nice to see.  The reason?  Low home prices.

The average and median home prices in Independence have always been almost exactly the same.  Independence ended the year at an average home price of $162, 874 and a median home price of $162, 000.    Compare that with some of the other metro towns and you can see that Independence is more affordable than some of the other Salem cities.

The average and median home prices did drop 7.4% from 2008 making Independence very affordable.

Couple the drop in home prices with a 12% decrease in homes listed AND a 16% increase in homes sold over 2008, and what you get is a supply and demand imbalance…corrected.  At least for now.  Right now, the data is indicating a nice healthy, normal, real estate market.  Now remember normal doesn’t mean a sellers market or a buyer’s market.  It means “let’s be reasonable” market.  Both sides need to put their sharkish “blood in the water” ways aside for a while.

So Independence ended the year on a good note.  There may be some ongoing mild price declines here, depending on unemployment woes, but I’m not anticipating any drastic changes to the Independence real estate market right now.  I would expect it to stay relatively flat in the 2010 year.   ‘

P.S.  Data used in this report was calculated from information provided by the WVMLS.

We’ll have to see how the rest of the small towns faire, but Dallas only experienced a 50% jump in foreclosures notices from 2008-2009.  It’s pretty sad when a 50% increase is good…Now I think part of that is that some of the builders out there were much smaller builders and went into default in 2008 because they couldn’t hold out as long as some of the larger Salem builders could, but I also think that homes there are just more affordable for most people.

Dallas Oregon Foreclosure Rates

This chart shows notice of defaults that were served in Dallas Oregon in 2009, according to Fidelity National Title Co.

In Dallas Oregon, there were 140 notice of defaults served in  2009 compared with the 94 served in 2008.   

How did that translate into the real estate world in Dallas Oregon this year?

Of the homes (regular single family and acreage properties) listed in 2009 according to the WVMLS,  35 were listed as short sales or bank owned homes.  That is 8.1% of listings.  This is one of the lower percentages of distressed properties in the area, and unlike Silverton which had a huge bump in Notice of Defaults served, Dallas’ jump is more proportional with the increase in foreclosure notices.

The future of distressed properties in Dallas Oregon?

Right now distressed properties make up 7.4% of the Dallas Oregon real estate market.  Like all of the metro cities, I would expect this number to rise due to the ongoing unemployment problems in Oregon. Unlike some of the other metro cities where I think the higher end houses will push home prices down, I think just the ongoing supply and demand problems here due to the excessive building (even moderately priced homes) will continue to pull prices down here.

If you are interested in foreclosures or short sales and want to start watching the foreclosure market, just email me to get on the list.

Dallas Oregon, like Silverton, has a 13 month inventory of homes right now.  Also like Silverton, this city has made good gains in cutting that inventory down. Not that 13 months is great by any means, but at least it’s coming down.

Dallas Oregon had a similar problem that Silverton had and that was the overbuilding that occurred.  Now the homes built in Dallas were much more moderately priced than the Silverton homes which is why I think their real estate market is just a tad healthier than Silverton’s…not that that is saying a lot.

In 2009, the listed vs. sold percentage was 50.8%.  This was a nice improvement over 2008’s 37.7% but still off from the early part of the decades 65%.  Going in the right direction…yes, but things still have a ways to go. I don’t think this is a surprise to anyone that reads a newspaper or watches the news.  Real estate is just going to take a bit to recover, like the economy.  It was nice to see fewer listings hitting the market this year than last year in Dallas.  While 14% less homes were listed in 2009 over 2008, that number really needs to get down another 15-20% to correct the supply and demand problem.    So either home sales need to come up or the number of homes listed has to come down.  Personally I don’t see home sales going up a whole lot more next year so the correction will need to come on the supply end. In other words don’t list your house if you don’t have to sell.

Not surprisingly with the supply and demand problem in Dallas, homes are taking longer to sell.  Homes spent 11% more days on the market in 2009 over 2008. I really don’t have anything insightful to say about this so I’ll just move on…

Okay so what happened to home prices in Dallas Oregon?

Obviously they went down.  It will be an earth shattering moment when I get to say that home prices went up.  So the average home price dropped 8.7% to $191,874 from 2008, and the median shifted downward 4.1% to $185,000.  I have to say I’m surprised that the drop wasn’t greater, but I think there is still a bit of denial on the state of the real estate market in Dallas.  Based on the supply and demand problem, large inventory, lending difficulties, and oh yes…our ongoing unemployment rate, I would expect Dallas home prices to correct another 5 maybe 10% over 2010.

P.S.  Statistics used in this post were calculated from the WVMLS.

With the kind of ugly nature of the Silverton Oregon real estate market for 2008 and 2009, its not surprising that foreclosures are up a lot here.

Silverton Oregon Foreclosure Rates

This chart shows notice of defaults that were served in Silverton Oregon in 2009, according to Fidelity National Title Co.

In Silverton Oregon, there were 110 notice of defaults served in  2009 compared with the 51 served in 2008.  This 115% increase is one of the worst in the Salem Metro market, barely coming in less than Salem’s 119% increase.  Yuck.

How did that translate into the real estate world in Silverton Oregon this year?

Of the homes (regular single family and acreage properties) listed in 2009 according to the WVMLS,  34 were listed as distressed properties (ie short sale OR foreclosure).  That is 10.8% of listings which is lower than both Salem and Keizer which are over 11%.

The future of distressed properties in Silverton Oregon in my opinion?

Right now distressed properties make up 9.5% of the Silverton Oregon real estate market.  Of potential concern is the large number of default notices, yet the number of active listings isn’t showing as being distressed.  This is potentially concerning because of the large increase in notice of defaults: there should be a corresponding large increase in short sales on the market.  If home sellers have some equity to sell and be able to clear title, then this is a good thing for sellers because they won’t have the foreclosure or short sale ding on their credit.  If home sellers are just not putting their homes on the market, then that is a whole other concern.  Short sales seem to depress real estate values less than foreclosures do since they tend to sell at less of a discount than foreclosures do.  If these homes don’t hit the market as short sales, but rather foreclosures, then home prices will absolutely continue to drop in Silverton.  A 10% drop in real estate values in 2010 in Silverton Oregon is a very real possibility with the current market dynamics.

If you are interested in foreclosures or short sales and want to start watching the foreclosure market, just email me to get on the list.

The Silverton Oregon real estate market has been one of the unhealthier real estate markets in the Salem metro area for a while now.  While this is still the case, it has made some steps towards improvement and correcting.  It still has a ways to go, but at least the trend is pointing in the right direction.

The biggest issue with the Silverton market has been the complete disconnect between supply and demand.   In the early part of the decade about 65% of homes listed sold.  2008 was a dismal year in Silverton as only 29.7% of homes listed sold.  2009 started the year with insane inventory in Silverton and the fact that inventory is at 13 months right now, is a great step for this small market.

In 2009, the listed vs. sold was 44%.  This was a huge improvement over 2008, which just stunk.  No nice words for that year in the Silverton real estate market.

17.4% fewer houses were listed in 2009 over 2008 which was sorely needed.  Supply and demand is still out of whack in Silverton, but at least it is moving in the right direction.

You don’t have to know anything about statistics to see that home prices have come down in Silverton Oregon.  In fact the average home price dropped 9.6% in 2009 over 2008 down to $224,180.  The median home priced dropped 13.27% to $202,000.   The median home price is almost back at 2005 levels right now.

I  know “blah, blah, dropped, blah, blah, bad” is what some of you are thinking, so here’s my opinion on the near future of the Silverton Oregon real estate market…

Still going down.

In fact I would not be surprised at all if it corrects another 10% in 2010.  While I am only calling 5% for Salem and Keizer, I really think that Silverton has much farther to go.   Supply and demand is still out of whack in this small town, unemployment and foreclosures are rising, lending is getting more difficult, and inventory is just too high.  Unfortunately for folks living in Silverton home prices just have to come down more to get in the ballpark for more home buyers.   I would really encourage folks living in Silverton to not “try” the real estate market there.  If you don’t have to sell and want to wait for “top dollar” this is not the market to do so, unless you have something extra special about your property.  Either you are in the market, or not.    With the average days on the market jumping 30% from 2008 to 173 days (5.7 months), selling a home in Silverton is starting to become a marathon.  You gotta have the stamina to sell it out there.

P.S.  Statistics used in this post were calculated from the WVMLS.

I was kinda hoping that some of the smaller towns surrounding Salem Oregon would come out a bit more…well…unscathed, but that is not going to be the case.  Unfortunately foreclosure notices are equal opportunity.

Keizer Oregon Foreclosure Rates

This chart shows notice of defaults that were served in Keizer Oregon in 2009, according to Fidelity National Title Co.

In Keizer Oregon, there were 238 notice of defaults served in  2009 compared with the 131 served in 2008.   While not as ugly as the Salem Oregon numbers, foreclosure notices in Keizer Oregon increased 81.7%.

How did that translate into the real estate world in Keizer Oregon this year?

Of the homes (regular single family and acreage properties) listed in 2009 according to the WVMLS,  43 were listed as short sales.  That is 7.5% of listings (same as Salem).  20 homes were listed as foreclosed properties (ie REO’s), which is 3.6% (just a tad higher than Salem).  So the total percentage of listings this past year in distress was 11.1%.   Of the short sales listed 40% were successfully closed by the end of the year. Of the REO’s listed, 70% were successfully closed. So some of that distressed property market was able to be taken off the market by buyers.

The future of distressed properties in Keizer Oregon?

Right now distressed properties make up 13.7% of the Keizer Oregon real estate market.  It’s a bit higher than the Salem Oregon market.  Unemployment and layoffs are equal opportunity these days and class less.  As I am expecting for Salem, I would expect these numbers to rise for Keizer as well.

If you are interested in foreclosures or short sales and want to start watching the foreclosure market, just email me to get on the list.