Get Real Estate Blog: Salem Oregon Home Trends and Relocation Information

Keizer home price trends

Well true to form, what goes up must come down.    Thankfully for Keizerites, the correction seems to have come and gone for the most part.  Keizer Oregon real estate has been pretty much flat-lined for a year.  The second quarter statistics are continuing that same pattern.  Inventory is running at 7.7 months right now, which is decent, but it would be nice to see it a bit lower.  The average home price was down just a mere 1.5% from last year, and currently is $196,030.

Home sales in Keizer Oregon

Keizer home sales were up, but that isn’t a surprise.  The tax credit helped to boost second quarter numbers, but also 2009 stunk so bad in the Salem metro area, it would have been really difficult to beat those dismal numbers.   Technically home sales were up 59% this quarter over 2009, but some of that is caused by the tax credit.  I still think without the tax credit these numbers would have gone up anyway.

Keizer Oregon Foreclosures

So home prices are essentially flat after a big drop last year, home sales are up, but what about foreclosures.  Now, I talked the other day about the CoreLogic data and their Salem data includes Keizer, but Keizer has its own identity.  Foreclosure notices are almost essentially the same as they were last year.  Not much of a drop for Keizer data.

So what does all this mean?

A whole lot of nothing…little movement up or down, in my opinion.  Keizer is just hanging out in purgatory while it waits for those notice of defaults to come down.  Then we will start to see a slow steady climb out.

You can see homes in Keizer that are in foreclosure, or just shoot me an email to get on the automatic foreclosure list.

The home sales and home price data was crunched from the WVMLS.  Foreclosure data was crunched from data provided by Fidelity National Title.

Recently the Statesman Journal and Salem-News.com spread the word that foreclosures in Salem Oregon had increased.  They used CoreLogic as their source of data and they are reporting an increase for Salem.  I disagree with their presentation of the data and here is why…

Interpreting the foreclosure data

First of all CoreLogic and I look at different things.  First,  they have their foreclosure rate calculation. This is a calculation based on the number of mortgages involved in the foreclosure process at any given point in time. Think about their data this way.  In January,  10 loans get served with a notice of default.  5 works things out with the bank, 5 don’t.  Those 5 homes are slated for auction in April.  April comes and 2 of the 5 delay their auction to do a short sale.  The other 3 go to auction and 10 more people get served with a notice of default.  So CoreLogic says that there are 12 homes (the 2 short sales plus the 10 new properties)  in their foreclosure rate in April which is a 20% increase over January.  It isn’t that 20% more homes got served with defaults, it is just that there are 20% more homes in the system.   CoreLogic’s “foreclosure rate” isn’t a foreclosure rate the way more lay people think about it.  There wasn’t an increase in the number of homes that went into foreclosure in Salem Oregon.  There was an increase of the number of homes in the system.  Essentially, CoreLogic’s foreclosure rate is really a shadow inventory rate.

The other difference in our data is that my data is Salem Oregon proper.  I don’t include Keizer, Gervais, Turner, etc in my calculations.  Just Salem.  They include a wider birth of zip codes in their data, where I pull by address and not zip code.  In fact,  the CoreLogic data showed a 16.4% increase in the foreclosure rate for the zip of 97307, which is the zip for PO boxes.  What I don’t know is if they have any doubling up of their data with two addresses (the physical address and the PO address).   Apparently,  people with PO boxes in 97307 are late on their mortgage payments lately.

Salem Oregon foreclosures

While I do think shadow inventory is important because at some point it will hit the market, I also care about how many physical properties are being served with default notices.  At some point we have to sell a real house and my data is showing that the number of properties being served with defaults in Salem Oregon  has in fact decreased for the second quarter in a row….by 14.3%.

So what does my data vs. CoreLogic mean for the Salem Oregon real estate market?  Pretty easy interpretation, I think.  Short term…not so hot.  That shadow inventory being tracked by CoreLogic will hit our real estate market at some point and continue to keep prices down and inventories up.  Long term…we are going in the right direction and we are starting to decrease the amount of properties feeding into the shadow inventory black hole.

If you want to see the homes for sale in Salem Oregon that are in foreclosure, just click the link, then contact me for a showing.

Data provided in this post was calculated from information received from Fidelity National Title Company.

Well June is over and you’d think that we’d have sun in Oregon by now, but it is seriously cool outside as I am writing this post. Typically I get to write my summer blogs outside soaking up my year’s worth of Vitamin D, but today…wearing polar fleece in my office.   Since this is a real estate blog for the Salem Oregon area and not a weather blog I should probably get refocused and talk about real estate but I just wanted to complain for a moment and hope the locals commiserate with me.  Our summer weather stinks this year.

Now that I have that complaint out of the way, onto real estate.  The second quarter has ended so we have more data to work with to get a better feel for how things are trending.  So how are things trending?

Salem Oregon Home Sales: Trending Up

Last year has consistently been the worst year for homes sold in Salem Oregon.  Home sales have gone up since last year and I do expect in terms of homes sold that2009 will be the worst year for sales volume.  The large peaks are due to the tax credits, but even without those, I still expect more homes to be sold this year over last year.

How about homes listed vs. sold?

How to read the graph?  The closer the lines the less inventory.  The farther apart means more inventory.   As for this quarter, the listed vs. sold ratio is 48.9%.  Compare that with 2005’s 76% and 2002’s 64% and you can see that while an improvement from last year, our home sales are still off.   We still have too much inventory.

Salem Oregon Home Prices: Trending down

This is economics 101 at work.  Too much inventory (ie lack of demand) means prices must go down to compensate.  Home prices continue to go down and will probably continue that way for a bit here.

Home prices are averaging an 8-10% decline since last year and I would expect that pattern to continue through this year.  With the Salem unemployment rate hovering in the 10% range and a real estate imbalance in inventory there is no choice but for basic economics to kick in and downward pressure remain on home prices.

I have been asked so many times “How is real estate doing?”   My answer is still the same. It depends on what you are asking me.  Are things improving?  Yes.  Do we have a healthy, good real estate market?  Nope.  Inching our way there, but we’ve got a ways to go.

P. S.  Data was crunched from data provided by the WVMLS.

Anyone following me on twitter or facebook knows that I just picked 40 pounds of strawberries with my family.  Oregon strawberries are amazingly sweet and we freeze them for smoothies and top french toast with them, which are great for kids for breakfast.   I make a fresh strawberry pie as part of the deal for picking all those strawberries.  There is nothing more amazing than fresh strawberry pie, in my opinion.  I’ve included my recipe here for Oregon strawberry pie at the end of this post…for those of you that have asked for it.

BUT, the point in me talking about local strawberries, well local produce in general, is because I am a firm believer in trying to have your food source be as close to you as possible.  I think it is important for kids to see that food doesn’t come out of a box, but rather can be made. Kids need to learn this in order to start good eating habits, in my opinion.  It appears that there are many other Oregonians that strongly believe in good eating habits for our kids.

Truth for America’s Health came out with the annual study of obesity.  Oregon ranked 51st in the nation for obesity…meaning that we have the fewest number of kids that are obese in Oregon.  9.6% of our Oregon kids are obese.  Compare that with the number 1 obese state of Mississippi where 21.9% of kids are already obese.  Remember this isn’t about being overweight, but the medical definition for obesity which is pretty serious.  I just wanted to say great job to all the Oregon parents out there that make your kids eat broccoli and force them away from the TV to enjoy what Oregon has to offer.

So get out there.  Go pick some fresh fruit with your kids.  Go visit one of the local swimming holes over the summer, and keep our kids healthy. Fewest obese kids?   Let’s keep it that way. This is one ranking chart where Oregon wants to stay dead last.

For those of you that haven’t been berry picking we have tons of local places to go that have amazing fruit.   My tip…just go early in the morning before it gets too hot.    Here is my strawberry pie recipe for those of you that asked for it.

Melina’s Fresh Strawberry Pie

Crust

I use Emeril Lagasse’s shortbread pie crust, which I think is amazing.  If you need gluten free, then you need to buy Gluten Free Baking Classics which has a great pie crust recipe.

Shortbread Pie Crust:

• 7 tablespoons unsalted butter, cut into pieces, room temperature
• 1/4 cup sugar
• 1 large egg yolk
• 1 1/4 cups all-purpose flour

To some Oregonian’s, all of Oregon’s woes are caused by Californian’s making Oregon, well, like California.  Big houses, plastic surgery, flashy wealth, and a general disregard for the slow paced style of Oregon life are often quoted as what it means to be “Californian.”   The huge bump in Salem Oregon real estate prices was squarely placed on the heads of these folks by some locals.   So, really are Californian’s the only ones that have been moving into Oregon?

Forbes has this cool map that shows the influx into Marion county.  The black lines represent those moving here and red lines are those moving away.  Not surprisingly those moving away from Oregon to sunny climates such as Arizona and Texas.  I’ll admit, especially after this dismal start to summer, that the gray can get irritating.  Personally,  I was thinking about some kind of sacrifice to the Sun Gods who have apparently abandoned we Oregonians…but I digress.  While I am not a hot weather person, I can see the desire some folks would have to head to a warmer climate.

I have to say that I always thought that the Californian’s are coming was a bit of a crock. I work with so many people relocating to Salem Oregon from all over the country that I really don’t see that imbalance.  Unfortunately, this map indicates that indeed the largest influx into Marion county is from California.    Just for the heck of it, I clicked on Polk county, which has part of Salem as well, and um…yep…Californian’s again.

So much for debunking that local sentiment. Anyone got a horse and some lanterns?  The Californian’s really are coming.

P.S.  Dear Californians…Salem has an improving restaurant scene and we’d love to see more great local (ie, no chains) restaurants here.   If you want to open a restaurant, come on up, I say

I don’t normally write about my listings on this blog.  I figure if you all are looking for a house, you know where to go and reading about a house on my blog probably will only send some readers away…but, I am going to post about one of my listings today.

A little history…

In the late 1800’s Mr. Clint Budd homesteaded land in the Halls Ferry district. He became blind later in life and had no family to care for him.   Mr. Ed Croisan, the county sheriff, was appointed his guardian.  When Mr. Budd died, Mr. Croisan donated 1.5 acres of land to be used for a school.    Before 1917,  the children of Halls Ferry walked to Roberts school. When the land was donated, a one room school was built at Halls Ferry Station.  They called it Riverview then Riverdale, and then later it was changed it to Halls Ferry after a boiler that was supposed to go to Riverside ended up at Riverdale.  Too confusing!

Around 1939, the school needed to expand and a primary room was built from the old woodshed and the one room school house became two.  Later a kitchen, bathrooms, and electricity were added.  I’m glad they added those last two. When the students were merged with Schirle school the building was sold and became the Roberts Community Church.  Now, it is a residence, and is up for sale.

The sellers of this house are such wonderful people that they are allowing the Halls Ferry Class Reunion to rent their home for a few hours for the reunion.  This is just one of those houses that you have to see.  The video is down below, but the grandness of the open living and dining room…which of course was the one room school house, is impressive.  For the history buffs out there, if you know anyone that would love the thought of living in a piece of history…the old Halls Ferry school is up for sale and have them call me.

You can call this house anything but cookie cutter.

Of all the local mini-real estate markets in the Salem Oregon area, I’ve long talked about how Keizer was not as hard hit or as bad as some of the others, including Salem.  This continues to be true and in fact Keizer saw a small pop in median home price this month over last year’s numbers.  Granted…last year stunk, but unlike Salem which has slowly descended to the bottom, Keizer had a big plunge and seems like it might flat line this year.  Just to give you an idea…Dec 31, 2009 the median home price ended at $185,000 YTD (year to date).   The median home price for Keizer at the end of May 2010 YTD?  $185,000.

With 7.2 month of inventory, the excess inventory that doused the market prior to the tax credit is slowly being absorbed as part of the regular real estate season.

I think Keizer is within just 1-2% of bottom.  It has been hovering really close to last year’s numbers.  Now, that doesn’t mean I think that real estate is going to skyrocket there anytime soon, but I think the averages and medians are going to hang here for a bit while the economy tries to improve.  I’m thinking flatline.

Home sales were up in May over last year, but that isn’t a big surprise. Fueled by the tax credit, buyers were out looking for deals.  The real test will be later this summer and early fall.

Overall though, Keizer is looking pretty good as far as real estate markets go.  The market is flat lining and heading towards a neutral real estate market.

Data was crunched by the WVMLS.

Tax day has come and gone, and with it…real estate season in Salem Oregon has begun.  Now, that is the normal real estate season, which will be funky this year due to the tax credit.   We should have two more months of really good sales numbers and then we should see a bit of a drop.    Even if we drop, I still think it will be an improvement over last year’s sales numbers…which were beyond dismal.  So my prediction will be sales will be up and prices will be down for the next few months.

May was up 24%, which is not a big surprise as buyers that were eligible for the tax credit were out trying to take advantage of that and last year was such a dismal year in real estate here in Salem Oregon, that I can’t imagine the numbers being too much worse…from a sales volume perspective.

Inventory is 9.9 months right now, which is still high, but I’ll take it.  The fact is that it will take a while to eat up all this inventory.  A while being a couple of years.

Home prices dropped, not unexpectedly from last May because in order for sales volume to go up home prices needed to come down to put that supply and demand thing back inline.  Home prices were about the same this month as in 2005.

So, what does all this mean?  I still stand by my opinion that we will have ongoing mild price declines for this year.  I’m still predicting that next year will be relatively flat and will probably be the official bottom of the real estate market.

Data was crunched from the WVMLS.

In 1864, this photo was taken of the Cook Hotel located on the corner of High and State Streets…the SE corner of it, in fact.   The hotel changed owners a couple of times and was the Monroe Hotel before the Bligh’s purchased the building and land, razed it, and built Bligh’s Capital Theater.

Bligh’s Capital Theater became Warner Bros Capital Theater and most recently this corner of Salem has become a local gem…La Capitale Brasserie.  Owner David Rosales, opened La Cap (locals nickname for this place), just over a year ago.  Already it has a good reputation in town, and I personally agree with that reputation.

I think I have the only kid on the planet that hates french fries.  My son has NEVER liked them.  On a recent outing to La Cap, he couldn’t resist trying one, as we all raved about how good the pommes frites were.

Yep.  My 10 year old finally likes french fries. Not sure if that is a good thing or not, but whether you are here for the pommes frites, the sandwiches, the tomato soup, or the warm chocolate cake…chances are you will enjoy your meal at this new local restaurant.

This is a great addition to the Salem restaurant scene, and for parents rest assured that their grilled cheese is kid tested and approved so feel free to head over there knowing you can get something for your kids, while you have a more adult meal.

Did I mention the lemonade is fresh squeezed?

If you are considering moving to Salem Oregon, this is one restaurant you will want to check out.

La Capitale Brasserie is located at 508 State Street in the old Bligh Capital Theater building.  David even has the old sign up on the wall.

The old photos are from the Salem Public Libraries Historic Photos Collection.

I’m always chatting with real estate agents around the country to see, whom is doing what in terms of new marketing. I’m always looking for new ideas to market my real estate listings here in the Salem area.  I was chatting with a really great Colts Neck, NJ real estate agent, Andrew Lenza about the use of tours in marketing.  He wrote a post about how a buyer for a property fell in love with the house after watching the virtual tour.

Now I do video tours for my listings, but I was curious about how many local homes for sale in  Salem Oregon specifically, had a virtual tour or video tour as part of their marketing.  In this day and age, I have to say I was surprised.  As of today 17% of homes on the MLS have a virtual or video tour.  17%…that’s it.  Now I can bet that most of those are just the slide-show virtual tours, and not an actual video tour, but I’d literally have to flip through all of them to see those stats and well…that’s not going to happen.

I’m guessing that John Kirk and I are some of the few agents in town that do an actual video tour. I’ve been messing around with different formats for my video tours, and have been enjoying adding that aspect into my marketing.  I do use a professional cameraman to shoot my videos since my tiny camera can’t handle the lighting differences.

So, when you are thinking about selling your home in Salem Oregon and you are looking at marketing plans think about this…

According to the 2009 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, 63% of home buyers found virtual and video tours helpful, and 26% somewhat useful.  89% of buyers found some use out of virtual tours, yet only 17% of local agents are using them.  Are you using an agent that is missing the boat?  The buyers like them.  Compare that to the 84% of buyers who found newspaper ads not useful at all. Is your listing agent marketing to the consumer.

Seriously.

If you are getting ready to hire an agent to sell your home and you think the 8 page Sunday spread sounds like great marketing…think again.  The buyers of your home are telling you what THEY want.  The only question that remains is are you hiring an agent to sell your home that is listening.